The failed potential triangle (per last post), led to a swift fall in markets. The triangle pattern as such is a great price pattern which provides specific price targets & stop loss price. However the relatively under-rated feature of this pattern is how often the ‘reverse trades’ on break...Read More »
Nifty has broadly performed in line with our expectations outlined before the election results were announced. The 11900-12500 zone mentioned in our last post has been a strong resistance zone. Based on the price action since, we believe it is very likely that this zone will...Read More »
Since our last post (which was quite a while back), Nifty has finally managed to hit the 11300 mark. Indian markets have spent quite a bit of time in creating a base before breaking above the 11000 high and the movement since has been swift. The price action...Read More »
Nifty crashed substantially from close to the 11000 level mentioned in the last report. Our primary case has been that the rise leading up to 11000 was part of an A-B-C (possibly flat) correction. However the extra ‘legs’ that developed left other interpretations open. Chart Below:
Nifty seems to continue to move as part of a larger A-B-C correction (weekly chart below):
Nifty formed a low around 10000 levels on 26th October and posted a nice up move. We are seeing this up-move as part of a correction. As long as we don’t break above the...Read More »
Nifty broke through the crucial 10815 level by the way of a gap formation and very quickly took out the 10557 level (mentioned in our last report) . The subsequent fall has been quite swift. This fall now seems to be part of an A-B-C irregular flat correction. Chart...Read More »
In spite of sharp fall in Nifty neither of our elliott wave counts can be completely ruled out. The price substructure right now also seems to be insufficient to take a conclusive view in either direction. In such scenarios the only option is to wait for important levels...Read More »
Nifty has continued to rally in line with the alternate scenario we outlined in our last post. The gap area of 11185-11210 proved to be decisive in keeping us on the right side of the markets and prevented us from getting bearish in anticipation of our base count...Read More »
You can watch our latest update on youtube or read the transcript below:
Transcript:
In our last youtube video we talked about two scenarios. Our assumption of the then price action being part of an ending...Read More »
In the video below I share my outlook on Nifty & Sensex.
...Read More »
We saw a fall in Nifty last week, which was followed with a surge in the Friday session that may raise some doubts over our medium term outlook of the fall. However, I still continue to expect a wave C fall over the medium term as long as we hold...Read More »
Since our last update Nifty has bounced from just above the 10400 level and has spent the last few days in a range.
I’m still seeing this price action as part of E-leg of the triangle. I still expect the prices to at least dip below the recent lows around 10418...Read More »
Nifty failed to sustain above the 78.6% level around 10909. We have seen sharp reversal since. We are still seeing this fall as part of E leg of triangle. Now that we have seen the completion of D-leg, we can do more accurate Fibonacci calculations for E-leg.
In our last video update we said that Nifty is probably in midst of a triangle formation and we expected some upside for Nifty. Here is the latest chart of Nifty:
Nifty has rallied quite a bit since (in line with our...Read More »
In this video I share my latest analysis that answers the question on Nifty / Sensex & Bank Nifty. Watch below:
...Read More »Nifty failed to sustain above the crucial 38.2% retracement level of 10604 and developed another leg down. This leg down though has not violated the important 10033-10075 zone mentioned in our last report. Below is the most probable wave count for Nifty’s fall from all...Read More »
Nifty violated many of the important levels mentioned in our last report. The sharp gap down movements in consecutive days pose a challenge in directly analyzing the price action (because of areas that lack any price action). In such a situation we will need to look at multiple...Read More »
Nifty has seen substantial fall from highs of 11170. I am seeing this current fall as part of a double zig-zag correction so far. Though my confidence on this would only increase if we see prices closing the gap down action seen today....Read More »
Since our last post, Nifty has stayed on an expected uptrend. Chart Below:
From a long term perspective, there is nothing new to add and we expect this trend to continue. The measured target for Nifty are at 10831/11233/11328. Important swing point is at 10404.
From a...Read More »
Since our last post, Nifty tried (unsuccessfully) to climb up to it’s all time high and fell sharply to briefly trade below the crucial 10104-10120 zone. Chart Below:
Nifty seems to...Read More »
Nifty hit a high close to 10500 since our last update and we have seen a substantial downward move since. Prices are still trading above the crucial 10104-10120 gap area we mentioned in the last post. This crucial gap area will continue to remain an...Read More »
Nifty made a major low around 9687 as mentioned in our last report and has managed to hit a new all time high. Identifying a simple flat correction was all that was needed to make this bullish call. Chart Below:
There is...Read More »
Nifty extended it’s fall to the 9724/9685 zone mentioned in our last update. We have seen strong reversal from this zone. This today has been followed by a breakaway movement in stocks. Although the breakaway movement has created only a small gap, it is likely that we may be able...Read More »
The price action in Nifty since our last update has confirmed that the fall that started from August 2 wasn’t start of a bear market. We cannot say the same about the fall from Sep 19 highs yet.
Based on short term calculations the current fall may extend...Read More »
Nifty needs to recoup losses from above the 9850-57 level in order to continue the upward march immediately. Below may be the top alternate count for Nifty in case it fails to do so:
Market’s recent move have been tough to analyze. This usually happens when the patterns...Read More »
Nifty has traded in a broad range between 9686-9940 over the last few weeks. We still maintain our bullish bias over the long term, though there is a possibility that this range bound movement is actually forming a triangle pattern. If this is indeed true then we are likely...Read More »
Nifty has seen a sharp correction from the major trend channel we discussed in our last update. Though the magnitude of the move has been much sharper than we anticipated. This further reinforces the importance of this longer term channel. As we mentioned in the last update, our...Read More »
Nifty has developed some sort of correction from the upper line of an important trend channel. Chart Below:
This trend channel is based on Nifty’s 2016 budget lows and demonetization lows. Our working assumption based on elliott wave theory wave count for Nifty...Read More »
Nifty vindicates our stance since our last update by hitting new highs. The price action immediately after our update (i.e. on July 3) was a breakaway gap which generally points to end of the current trend and beginning of a new trend in the opposite direction. We have marked...Read More »
Nifty failed to hold on to gains from the crucial 9580 level. Yet as long as we continue to stay over the 9342 level, we will continue to look at the rally from 9342 to 9706 as wave 1 of the next medium term trend. Accordingly we will...Read More »
Nifty has been in a very strong uptrend that started around March of 2016. Pharma sector though has had a very different story, largely thanks to major regulatory tightening in developed markets. This has been very well covered by mainstream financial media and this coverage is getting more &...Read More »
As explained in our last post we expected Nifty to rally towards the 9473-9500 zone. We also expected some kind of correction to develop from this zone. However, we also mentioned that we cannot rule out the possibility that wave 3 (which we showed as a 9-wave extension), may...Read More »
Our last update expected the market correction to gather steam on break of 9075 level on Nifty. However, this possibility was nullified on break of the crucial 9217 level as mentioned in our report. The break of this level has resulted in a major upswing and postponement of...Read More »
Since our last update Nifty has managed to make new highs and reverse sharply in a correction. Last few weeks has seen rise in geo-political risk, specifically the developments in the Korean Peninsula. Nifty managed to stay buoyant over the last few weeks, all this while playing down...Read More »
On March 11 it became apparent that the Modi Wave that swept the 2014 General elections is well intact. The markets obliged by opening higher and after close to 2 years. We saw Nifty breaking above its all time highs. On the 18 March weekend Yogi Adityanath was...Read More »
Since our last update Nifty has not been able to break the trend channel on either side, but has managed to briefly touch a high above the Sept 2016 highs. Same has been the case with Bank Nifty. The recent rally though has not been able to test...Read More »
Nifty fell from a key level outlined by us, but failed to develop an impulse move to the downside. This resulted in a major rally that may have substantial implications. Below is a probable wave count for the fall since September. We were considering this to be a...Read More »
Relative Strength Index or RSI is a very well known technical indicator known to almost everyone. This is thanks to it being quoted very often in mainstream media. One reason why retail investors like this indicator is because it is easy to use it as a thumb rule. As investopedia puts...Read More »
Around this time last year as well, the US Fed hiked interest rates. At the time they expected 4 more rate hikes over the year. We had grave doubts over this hawkish commentary materializing, simply because the pattern in interest rate yield charts didn’t support the view, and...Read More »
Since our last update Nifty has seen a sharp fall and markets have traveled from 8600 levels to close to 7900 levels. We have seen some kind of a relief rally over the last 3 sessions. Chart Below:
We will continue to remain skeptical of this rally,...Read More »
Nifty panic selling & sharp recovery seen after Trump Election & Modi’s action on Black Money is reminiscent of the price action we saw immediately after Brexit panic. This should incline us to consider this move positively. However there are many other red flags that require us to...Read More »
On 28th October FBI Director Comey wrote to the U.S. Congress that FBI is re-opening investigation into Clinton’s use of private email server. A potentially damaging news for the presidential candidate. Stock market’s fall was widely attributed to this “news”, and yet thousands of miles away we had...Read More »
Our last Nifty Update mentioned:
“8488-8530 may be able to provide crucial support to the markets if another leg of the fall materializes”
Nifty made a low of 8506 around 17-October and posted a rally that carried it to 8736 levels. We also indicated that our top most...Read More »
Nifty witnessed an unexpected sharp fall on 13th October. In the process Nifty briefly fell below the 8570-8600 zone and has been trading in the zone since. In spite of the sharp fall, the broader price action witnessed so far is indicating that this fall is probably a correction in the...Read More »
Nifty crashed in accordance with our outlook and has taken support around the important 8570-8600 zone mentioned in our previous post. The subsequent rally on Monday is encouraging. The Indo Pak relationship meanwhile has hit a new low. It remains to be seen if we are in...Read More »
On Thursday Nifty created another gap thanks to a gap up opening. This gap ended up being closed as well by Friday. This gap creation at open and subsequent close has been the prime characteristic of the market since a couple of weeks. This has also meant that...Read More »
In our last post on Nifty we pointed to a possible sentiment extreme in the markets, though we needed the market to move below the crucial support of 8866. We were anticipating it to reach this level earlier than it actually did in order for a...Read More »
Nifty rallied from our crucial support of 8540 and hit our target of 8800 last week. Early this week the momentum seems to have continued. At the time of writing this article markets are trading close to the T1 trend line. The volumes so far are tepid...Read More »
In our last update on Nifty we pointed out how Nifty has been trading in between two trend lines. We also mentioned a crucial support around 8540 levels. Chart Below:
Nifty has since tested the lower trendline T2 and managed to close above it....Read More »
Here is a snapshot of Nifty move in last few days:
August 3: Closes Down by 79 points
August 4: Closes Flat (compared to previous close)
August 5: Closes Up over 130 points
August 8: Closes Up by 28 points
August 9: Closes Down by 33 points
August 10: Closes Down by 100 points
August 11: Closes...Read More »
Nifty broke through the key 8655 level, yet has failed to sustain above the level for too long. Also another attempt to move above the T1 trend line failed. Chart Below:
The 8530-8535 levels in Nifty is key. If Nifty manages to stay over these levels, there...Read More »
Nifty has seen a sharp reversal by the end of the day. The high made by Nifty was around 8645, eerily close to the crucial 8655 level we have mentioned quite often. Chart Below:
The exuberance created by break of 8587 level...Read More »
Nifty bounced from the key 8478 levels mentioned in our last post. The bounce should not be taken seriously unless it crosses 8587 level. If we are in a correction of a continuing up trend we should ideally stay above the 8478 level, and head higher by ultimately breaking the...Read More »
Since our last post Nifty has managed to keep its upward momentum intact without any major correction, except the one today. This correction has developed around an important trend line (T1) as shown below:
This trend line (T1) should be closely observed...Read More »
Nifty correction wasn’t able to break the crucial level of 7896, and has since managed to break above the crucial 8300 level. Chart Below:
This move is likely a wave (v) move as part of wave 3 or C. As readers would recall we...Read More »
Nifty’s sharp fall on Brexit outcome took support at 7936. It managed to stay over the crucial support of 7896 mentioned in our Nifty medium term wave count report. This report mentions 7896/7715 as crucial support in determining our most preferred wave count. We will continue to...Read More »
Ahead of Brexit vote, Nifty seems to be prepping for a whipsaw action. Chart below:
Nifty may be in a triangle correction as part of wave 4. There is a possibility of prices testing the 8350-8400 zone if a breakout from this triangle materializes. Such gains though may...Read More »
Nifty & Sensex managed a volatile week which was characterized by sharp gap opening actions. For 4 out of 5 days we saw indices open gap down or up. Characteristically all these gaps were subsequently filled. This points to these gaps being area gaps which indicate some kind...Read More »
Our Valentine’s day report on Nifty outlined a possible Elliott wave count for Nifty. Specifically we were looking for an end to a possible triple zigzag correction. The markets since have posted a spectacular rally. As our regular readers would know many times we track multiple possible...Read More »
Since our last update, Nifty has been rallying towards our measured target of 8357-8410. Post RBI policy Nifty encountered resistance around 8300 levels. While the momentum has not been categorically strong. The fact remains that the corrections have been mild compared to what we witnessed in May. Below is the...Read More »
Nifty/ Sensex have managed to break the April highs. In the process it has vindicated our stand on the post Mauritius treaty change price action being a correction. In light of this it is time to look at some measured targets for this current leg of the rally.
With respect to Nifty, we have maintained that what we are witnessing in the market is largely a correction that should ultimately resolve to the upside. This assumption will continue to be valid unless we see a major downtrend 5-wave impulse move. There has been no evidence towards...Read More »
In our last update On Nifty we mentioned Nifty would be spending more time in the range of 7781 – 7892. The markets have now spend a week in this range. Below is our most preferred wave count:
Our most...Read More »
Nifty opened Gap down Post the Mauritius Treaty Change. While some may find reasons to believe that this is not good development for the stock market, the fact remains from a long term perspective all attempts at cracking down on tax loopholes or crony capitalism are very positive...Read More »
You may directly jump to the end of the post for conclusion in case you are not comfortable with the complexity of our explanation. However we strongly encourage you to read the post in its entirety so that you understand the basis for our analysis and preferred wave count...Read More »
I hope today’s rally didn’t caught you by surprise. As we elaborated in our last post, the 7828-7850 was a crucial zone for Nifty. The low for this correction turned out to be 7823, and the markets turned up without a classic bottoming out. This may become the...Read More »
Nifty & Sensex rally managed to achieve the gap based target around 7972. We have seen some correction since then and we are trading around 7900. We see this correction as short term in nature which is good considering that Nifty has traveled from 7585 to 7977 very...Read More »
Nifty & Sensex have managed a splendid rally in the last 2 months. In course of this they have achieved many of our major targets. Our 2nd March post: Nifty breaks out providing confirmation alerted readers to a pattern based target of 7900. We also alerted on...Read More »
Markets have seen a sharp correction from 7784 levels (25479 BSE Sensex). The prices have respected the trend channel that has been in play since March ’15. This was the correction we have been expecting that should mark the end of wave 1 & develop into wave 2 correction...Read More »
Nifty & BSE Sensex have encountered resistance at important levels. We mentioned in our last post how 7745 & ultimately 7800-7820 (upper end of the trend channel) may be important levels for Nifty.
We saw markets crash sharply from 7745 & equally sharp rally back,...Read More »
Nifty broke above the crucial 7541 levels but failed to sustain above it as it sharply reversed its gains after hitting a high of 7582. A break of of 7461 level on the downside should be used to exit any initiated long positions as it may indicate...Read More »
For the last few days, Nifty has been trading in a congestion zone of 100 points. The last correction of this magnitude in Nifty played out intraday on 29-Feb. This was a wave 2 zig-zag correction as shown in the chart below. Current congestion is likely part of...Read More »
We have been tracking two trend lines for quite a few days now in hope of finding an important confirmation signal. The T1 line has reinforced its importance time and again with markets refusing to stay below this line for long. The market rally for two days meant that yesterday...Read More »
Nifty has seen a volatile whipsaw budget action, that has essentially brought the market back to where it started after posting a new low. Price are back into the corrective channel that has been play since March of 2015.It has also closed and managed to stay above the...Read More »
Much like the parliament, markets have seen a lot of drama without much progress. Nifty reversed from the key level of 7241 outlined in our last report. But significantly enough managed to stay above the low of 6960, thus still keeping the hopes for bulls alive. This...Read More »
Our last article outlined a 2-stage confirmation required to confirm if a sustainable bottom is in place. The prices managed to break and stay above line T1 and are now trading close to an important resistance level 7241. Though the price action is not as convincing....Read More »
In our last post we mentioned how some indicators have aligned but prices have not. The market action on Friday has given some indication of buying emerging as markets managed to stem and recover from the intra-day fall to close near the opening price of the day creating a Doji....Read More »
Markets had one of the worst days since April ’15. The news articles in non-financial media reflect this fact:
Snapshot from Times of India:
Snapshot from Firstpost:
Snapshot from Hindu:
Snapshot from NDTV:
If you have looked...Read More »
Nifty has invalidated our high probability wave count and is now developing into the 5th leg as per our second most likely scenario outlined in our last post. This doesn’t affect our long term analysis (and bullish outlook) as the prices continue to stay in a channel since...Read More »
Consistent with our high priority wave count outlined in our last post, where by we have finished a 5-wave impulse move around 7600 and the correction from highs around 7600 is a wave 2 correction. One may consider going long around current levels of 7285-7315, with a strict...Read More »
In our last post on Nifty we said:
“The price developments so far are positive. They appear to be impulsive in nature and not corrective. This is a very positive development and odds remain high that we may have in place a medium to long term bottom....Read More »
Our 21st January market end report pointed out to a reversal in the market with an immediate price target of 7580-7630 for the ending diagonal pattern. The trade is currently in play. Meanwhile we present a medium term chart outlining a high probability wave count for...Read More »
Nifty opened gap down 80 points and ended sharply lower today down by over 1.5%. At one point it was trading down close to 200 points, but ended up recovering some losses by the day end. We have been tracking this pattern for few days now, but this...Read More »
With respect to Nifty’s fall, a lot of comparison is being drawn to the kind of crash we saw in 2008. So we decided to pick up the monthly chart to actually compare this fall with what we saw in 2008 and a later correction we witnessed in 2010-11. Chart...Read More »
Short term Update
Nifty opened lower yesterday and has managed to close the opening gap formed yesterday. Markets managed to bounce from 7494. The price structure looks corrective, but considering the volatility we recommend getting out of your short trades if markets cross 7633. The shorts can...Read More »
The swiftness of Nifty move anticipated in our last report played out well, with global markets extending further sell out. The swiftness of the move and increased volatility means it would get increasingly harder to trade these moves. The gap down like these only further adds...Read More »
In our last post we mentioned:
“It would be wise to not consider the current rally to be the beginning of a sustainable bull market unless we see some concrete developments above the trend channel. There is every possibility we may still see a sharp reversal and fall...Read More »
The stock market movement post the Federal reserve rate hike has been an anticlimax. The markets have refused to go below the Modi Era support range although they did manage to briefly test it. We believe it is still advisable to stay cautious on the long side, as...Read More »
Nifty & Sensex selling to continue for the short term as we move closer and likely enter the Modi Era Support Range, but this article is for medium term and long term investors as we will soon be entering an important juncture in the market, which could turn out...Read More »
In our last report we pointed to a short term channel that was being followed from 7714 lows formed on 16th November. We also mentioned how the upward price movement had lacked to exhibit the right price action for a sustained up-move.
We also mentioned and...Read More »
As Nifty & Sensex chug along, we continue to stay cautious. In our last post we mentioned the importance of breaking the level of 7996 with the right price action, in order for bulls to take charge. Now that we are close to 7940, it becomes important...Read More »
NIFTY has been in a range since last few days. Unfortunately, clarity evades us as the level of 7691 on the downside has not been broken by NIFTY, which leaves us with a possibility of major rally in NIFTY. Unless the level of 7996 is broken on the upside with...Read More »
Bihar Poll results help beat down already weak NIFTY. NIFTY has opened gap down. There is a common myth in Technical Analysis which goes “All gaps should be closed before sustainable trend”, which is a myth because it is not necessarily true, which means if it may or...Read More »
Twice before stochastic divergence coincided with NIFTY halting its decline. The chart below shows how close is stochastic currently to those levels. NIFTY is also presenting a brief divergence as while 2nd Nov. lows on NIFTY have been broken and NIFTY has made a substantial new low today, stochastic have...Read More »
NIFTY cracks from our resistance zone mentioned in the last update on NIFTY. It now hovers above the crucial support zone between 8055-8088, with stochastic pointing towards further weakness, at the same time the momentum oscillator has ‘flattened’ instead of making new lows, while NIFTY today made...Read More »
NIFTY faces tough resistance around 8320.
It is a crucial resistance for NIFTY to overcome. Stochastic & momentum oscillators point to some sort of correction in the short term. One would be well advised to refrain from building long positions until a break of this resistance level.
On a day the Sensex rallied over 500 pts (564 points to be exact) ET carries an article titled why it may fall to 22000 on its front page. The article points to the disbelief in the current rally which has traveled quite quickly from 24923 to current...Read More »
